OaD, The Once a Day Blog once a day blog :: Pessimism

Uncategorized, By Slingshot, Pessimism, Will Someone Please Think of the Children, Conspiracy, Working the SystemMay 30, 2006 4:16 pm

Recently, Noam Chomsky released a text indicating the downfall of America. Because this text is not going to be on the net for long, I decided to copy it for your reading pleasure. He gives three points that are the crutial demise of our country. Very interesting and hopefully could lead us into a positive direction, now that we know what’s wrong…
Don’t just get mad at me, get mad at our stagnant population, sitting on their lawn chairs and watching their empire crumble. “We’ve tried nothing and we’re all out of ideas, man!” –Ned Flander’s beatnik dad.

An inability to protect its citizens. The belief that it is above the law. A lack of democracy. Three defining characteristics of the ‘failed state’. And that, says Noam Chomsky, is exactly what the US is becoming. In an exclusive extract from his devastating new book, America’s leading thinker explains how his country lost its way

The selection of issues that should rank high on the agenda of concern for human welfare and rights is, naturally, a subjective matter. But there are a few choices that seem unavoidable, because they bear so directly on the prospects for decent survival. Among them are at least these three: nuclear war, environmental disaster, and the fact that the government of the world’s leading power is acting in ways that increase the likelihood of these catastrophes. It is important to stress the government, because the population, not surprisingly, does not agree.

That brings up a fourth issue that should deeply concern Americans, and the world: the sharp divide between public opinion and public policy, one of the reasons for the fear, which cannot casually be put aside, that, as Gar Alperowitz puts it in America Beyond Capitalism, “the American ’system’ as a whole is in real trouble - that it is heading in a direction that spells the end of its historic values [of] equality, liberty, and meaningful democracy”.

The “system” is coming to have some of the features of failed states, to adopt a currently fashionable notion that is conventionally applied to states regarded as potential threats to our security (like Iraq) or as needing our intervention to rescue the population from severe internal threats (like Haiti). Though the concept is recognised to be, according to the journal Foreign Affairs, “frustratingly imprecise”, some of the primary characteristics of failed states can be identified. One is their inability or unwillingness to protect their citizens from violence and perhaps even destruction. Another is their tendency to regard themselves as beyond the reach of domestic or international law, and hence free to carry out aggression and violence. And if they have democratic forms, they suffer from a serious “democratic deficit” that deprives their formal democratic institutions of real substance.

Among the hardest tasks that anyone can undertake, and one of the most important, is to look honestly in the mirror. If we allow ourselves to do so, we should have little difficulty in finding the characteristics of “failed states” right at home.

No one familiar with history should be surprised that the growing democratic deficit in the United States is accompanied by declaration of messianic missions to bring democracy to a suffering world. Declarations of noble intent by systems of power are rarely complete fabrication, and the same is true in this case. Under some conditions, forms of democracy are indeed acceptable. Abroad, as the leading scholar-advocate of “democracy promotion” concludes, we find a “strong line of continuity”: democracy is acceptable if and only if it is consistent with strategic and economic interests (Thomas Carothers). In modified form, the doctrine holds at home as well.

The basic dilemma facing policymakers is sometimes candidly recognised at the dovish liberal extreme of the spectrum, for example, by Robert Pastor, President Carter’s national security adviser for Latin America. He explained why the administration had to support the murderous and corrupt Somoza regime in Nicaragua, and, when that proved impossible, to try at least to maintain the US-trained National Guard even as it was massacring the population “with a brutality a nation usually reserves for its enemy”, killing some 40,000 people. The reason was the familiar one: “The United States did not want to control Nicaragua or the other nations of the region, but it also did not want developments to get out of control. It wanted Nicaraguans to act independently, except when doing so would affect US interests adversely.”

Similar dilemmas faced Bush administration planners after their invasion of Iraq. They want Iraqis “to act independently, except when doing so would affect US interests adversely”. Iraq must therefore be sovereign and democratic, but within limits. It must somehow be constructed as an obedient client state, much in the manner of the traditional order in Central America. At a general level, the pattern is familiar, reaching to the opposite extreme of institutional structures. The Kremlin was able to maintain satellites that were run by domestic political and military forces, with the iron fist poised. Germany was able to do much the same in occupied Europe even while it was at war, as did fascist Japan in Man-churia (its Manchukuo). Fascist Italy achieved similar results in North Africa while carrying out virtual genocide that in no way harmed its favourable image in the West and possibly inspired Hitler. Traditional imperial and neocolonial systems illustrate many variations on similar themes.

To achieve the traditional goals in Iraq has proven to be surprisingly difficult, despite unusually favourable circumstances. The dilemma of combining a measure of independence with firm control arose in a stark form not long after the invasion, as mass non-violent resistance compelled the invaders to accept far more Iraqi initiative than they had anticipated. The outcome even evoked the nightmarish prospect of a more or less democratic and sovereign Iraq taking its place in a loose Shiite alliance comprising Iran, Shiite Iraq, and possibly the nearby Shiite-dominated regions of Saudi Arabia, controlling most of the world’s oil and independent of Washington.

The situation could get worse. Iran might give up on hopes that Europe could become independent of the United States, and turn eastward. Highly relevant background is discussed by Selig Harrison, a leading specialist on these topics. “The nuclear negotiations between Iran and the European Union were based on a bargain that the EU, held back by the US, has failed to honour,” Harrison observes.

“The bargain was that Iran would suspend uranium enrichment, and the EU would undertake security guarantees. The language of the joint declaration was “unambiguous. ‘A mutually acceptable agreement,’ it said, would not only provide ‘objective guarantees’ that Iran’s nuclear programme is ‘exclusively for peaceful purposes’ but would ‘equally provide firm commitments on security issues.’”

The phrase “security issues” is a thinly veiled reference to the threats by the United States and Israel to bomb Iran, and preparations to do so. The model regularly adduced is Israel’s bombing of Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1981, which appears to have initiated Saddam’s nuclear weapons programs, another demonstration that violence tends to elicit violence. Any attempt to execute similar plans against Iran could lead to immediate violence, as is surely understood in Washington. During a visit to Tehran, the influential Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr warned that his militia would defend Iran in the case of any attack, “one of the strongest signs yet”, the Washington Post reported, “that Iraq could become a battleground in any Western conflict with Iran, raising the spectre of Iraqi Shiite militias - or perhaps even the US-trained Shiite-dominated military - taking on American troops here in sympathy with Iran.” The Sadrist bloc, which registered substantial gains in the December 2005 elections, may soon become the most powerful single political force in Iraq. It is consciously pursuing the model of other successful Islamist groups, such as Hamas in Palestine, combining strong resistance to military occupation with grassroots social organising and service to the poor.

Washington’s unwillingness to allow regional security issues to be considered is nothing new. It has also arisen repeatedly in the confrontation with Iraq. In the background is the matter of Israeli nuclear weapons, a topic that Washington bars from international consideration. Beyond that lurks what Harrison rightly describes as “the central problem facing the global non-proliferation regime”: the failure of the nuclear states to live up to their nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) obligation “to phase out their own nuclear weapons” - and, in Washington’s case, formal rejection of the obligation.

Unlike Europe, China refuses to be intimidated by Washington, a primary reason for the growing fear of China on the part of US planners. Much of Iran’s oil already goes to China, and China is providing Iran with weapons, presumably considered a deterrent to US threats. Still more uncomfortable for Washington is the fact that, according to the Financial Times, “the Sino-Saudi relationship has developed dramatically”, including Chinese military aid to Saudi Arabia and gas exploration rights for China. By 2005, Saudi Arabia provided about 17 per cent of China’s oil imports. Chinese and Saudi oil companies have signed deals for drilling and construction of a huge refinery (with Exxon Mobil as a partner). A January 2006 visit by Saudi king Abdullah to Beijing was expected to lead to a Sino-Saudi memorandum of understanding calling for “increased cooperation and investment between the two countries in oil, natural gas, and minerals”.

Indian analyst Aijaz Ahmad observes that Iran could “emerge as the virtual linchpin in the making, over the next decade or so, of what China and Russia have come to regard as an absolutely indispensable Asian Energy Security Grid, for breaking Western control of the world’s energy supplies and securing the great industrial revolution of Asia”. South Korea and southeast Asian countries are likely to join, possibly Japan as well. A crucial question is how India will react. It rejected US pressures to withdraw from an oil pipeline deal with Iran. On the other hand, India joined the United States and the EU in voting for an anti-Iranian resolution at the IAEA, joining also in their hypocrisy, since India rejects the NPT regime to which Iran, so far, appears to be largely conforming. Ahmad reports that India may have secretly reversed its stand under Iranian threats to terminate a $20bn gas deal. Washington later warned India that its “nuclear deal with the US could be ditched” if India did not go along with US demands, eliciting a sharp rejoinder from the Indian foreign ministry and an evasive tempering of the warning by the US embassy.

The prospect that Europe and Asia might move toward greater independence has seriously troubled US planners since World War II, and concerns have significantly increased as the tripolar order has continued to evolve, along with new south-south interactions and rapidly growing EU engagement with China.

US intelligence has projected that the United States, while controlling Middle East oil for the traditional reasons, will itself rely mainly on more stable Atlantic Basin resources (West Africa, western hemisphere). Control of Middle East oil is now far from a sure thing, and these expectations are also threatened by developments in the western hemisphere, accelerated by Bush administration policies that have left the United States remarkably isolated in the global arena. The Bush administration has even succeeded in alienating Canada, an impressive feat.

Canada’s minister of natural resources said that within a few years one quarter of the oil that Canada now sends to the United States may go to China instead. In a further blow to Washington’s energy policies, the leading oil exporter in the hemisphere, Venezuela, has forged probably the closest relations with China of any Latin American country, and is planning to sell increasing amounts of oil to China as part of its effort to reduce dependence on the openly hostile US government. Latin America as a whole is increasing trade and other relations with China, with some setbacks, but likely expansion, in particular for raw materials exporters like Brazil and Chile.

Meanwhile, Cuba-Venezuela relations are becoming very close, each relying on its comparative advantage. Venezuela is providing low-cost oil while in return Cuba organises literacy and health programs, sending thousands of highly skilled professionals, teachers, and doctors, who work in the poorest and most neglected areas, as they do elsewhere in the Third World. Cuba-Venezuela projects are extending to the Caribbean countries, where Cuban doctors are providing healthcare to thousands of people with Venezuelan funding. Operation Miracle, as it is called, is described by Jamaica’s ambassador to Cuba as “an example of integration and south-south cooperation”, and is generating great enthusiasm among the poor majority. Cuban medical assistance is also being welcomed elsewhere. One of the most horrendous tragedies of recent years was the October 2005 earthquake in Pakistan. In addition to the huge toll, unknown numbers of survivors have to face brutal winter weather with little shelter, food, or medical assistance. One has to turn to the South Asian press to read that “Cuba has provided the largest contingent of doctors and paramedics to Pakistan”, paying all the costs (perhaps with Venezuelan funding), and that President Musharraf expressed his “deep gratitude” for the “spirit and compassion” of the Cuban medical teams.

Some analysts have suggested that Cuba and Venezuela might even unite, a step towards further integration of Latin America in a bloc that is more independent from the United States. Venezuela has joined Mercosur, the South American customs union, a move described by Argentine president Nestor Kirchner as “a milestone” in the development of this trading bloc, and welcomed as opening “a new chapter in our integration” by Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Independent experts say that “adding Venezuela to the bloc furthers its geopolitical vision of eventually spreading Mercosur to the rest of the region”.

At a meeting to mark Venezuela’s entry into Mercosur, Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez said, “We cannot allow this to be purely an economic project, one for the elites and for the transnational companies,” a not very oblique reference to the US-sponsored “Free Trade Agreement for the Americas”, which has aroused strong public opposition. Venezuela also supplied Argentina with fuel oil to help stave off an energy crisis, and bought almost a third of Argentine debt issued in 2005, one element of a region-wide effort to free the countries from the control of the US-dominated IMF after two decades of disastrous effects of conformity to its rules. The IMF has “acted towards our country as a promoter and a vehicle of policies that caused poverty and pain among the Argentine people”, President Kirchner said in announcing his decision to pay almost $1 trillion to rid itself of the IMF forever. Radically violating IMF rules, Argentina enjoyed a substantial recovery from the disaster left by IMF policies.

Steps toward independent regional integration advanced further with the election of Evo Morales in Bolivia in December 2005, the first president from the indigenous majority. Morales moved quickly to reach energy accords with Venezuela.

Though Central America was largely disciplined by Reaganite violence and terror, the rest of the hemisphere is falling out of control, particularly from Venezuela to Argentina, which was the poster child of the IMF and the Treasury Department until its economy collapsed under the policies they imposed. Much of the region has left-centre governments. The indigenous populations have become much more active and influential, particularly in Bolivia and Ecuador, both major energy producers, where they either want oil and gas to be domestically controlled or, in some cases, oppose production altogether. Many indigenous people apparently do not see any reason why their lives, societies, and cultures should be disrupted or destroyed so that New Yorkers can sit in SUVs in traffic gridlock. Some are even calling for an “Indian nation” in South America. Meanwhile the economic integration that is under way is reversing patterns that trace back to the Spanish conquests, with Latin American elites and economies linked to the imperial powers but not to one another. Along with growing south-south interaction on a broader scale, these developments are strongly influenced by popular organisations that are coming together in the unprecedented international global justice movements, ludicrously called “anti-globalisation” because they favour globalisation that privileges the interests of people, not investors and financial institutions. For many reasons, the system of US global dominance is fragile, even apart from the damage inflicted by Bush planners.

One consequence is that the Bush administration’s pursuit of the traditional policies of deterring democracy faces new obstacles. It is no longer as easy as before to resort to military coups and international terrorism to overthrow democratically elected governments, as Bush planners learnt ruefully in 2002 in Venezuela. The “strong line of continuity” must be pursued in other ways, for the most part. In Iraq, as we have seen, mass nonviolent resistance compelled Washington and London to permit the elections they had sought to evade. The subsequent effort to subvert the elections by providing substantial advantages to the administration’s favourite candidate, and expelling the independent media, also failed. Washington faces further problems. The Iraqi labor movement is making considerable progress despite the opposition of the occupation authorities. The situation is rather like Europe and Japan after World War II, when a primary goal of the United States and United Kingdom was to undermine independent labour movements - as at home, for similar reasons: organised labour contributes in essential ways to functioning democracy with popular engagement. Many of the measures adopted at that time - withholding food, supporting fascist police - are no longer available. Nor is it possible today to rely on the labour bureaucracy of the American Institute for Free Labor Development to help undermine unions. Today, some American unions are supporting Iraqi workers, just as they do in Colombia, where more union activists are murdered than anywhere in the world. At least the unions now receive support from the United Steelworkers of America and others, while Washington continues to provide enormous funding for the government, which bears a large part of the responsibility.

The problem of elections arose in Palestine much in the way it did in Iraq. As already discussed, the Bush administration refused to permit elections until the death of Yasser Arafat, aware that the wrong man would win. After his death, the administration agreed to permit elections, expecting the victory of its favoured Palestinian Authority candidates. To promote this outcome, Washington resorted to much the same modes of subversion as in Iraq, and often before. Washington used the US Agency for International Development as an “invisible conduit” in an effort to “increase the popularity of the Palestinian Authority on the eve of crucial elections in which the governing party faces a serious challenge from the radical Islamic group Hamas” (Washington Post), spending almost $2m “on dozens of quick projects before elections this week to bolster the governing Fatah faction’s image with voters” (New York Times). In the United States, or any Western country, even a hint of such foreign interference would destroy a candidate, but deeply rooted imperial mentality legitimates such routine measures elsewhere. However, the attempt to subvert the elections again resoundingly failed.

The US and Israeli governments now have to adjust to dealing somehow with a radical Islamic party that approaches their traditional rejectionist stance, though not entirely, at least if Hamas really does mean to agree to an indefinite truce on the international border as its leaders state. The US and Israel, in contrast, insist that Israel must take over substantial parts of the West Bank (and the forgotten Golan Heights). Hamas’s refusal to accept Israel’s “right to exist” mirrors the refusal of Washington and Jerusalem to accept Palestine’s “right to exist” - a concept unknown in international affairs; Mexico accepts the existence of the United States but not its abstract “right to exist” on almost half of Mexico, acquired by conquest. Hamas’s formal commitment to “destroy Israel” places it on a par with the United States and Israel, which vowed formally that there could be no “additional Palestinian state” (in addition to Jordan) until they relaxed their extreme rejectionist stand partially in the past few years, in the manner already reviewed. Although Hamas has not said so, it would come as no great surprise if Hamas were to agree that Jews may remain in scattered areas in the present Israel, while Palestine constructs huge settlement and infrastructure projects to take over the valuable land and resources, effectively breaking Israel up into unviable cantons, virtually separated from one another and from some small part of Jerusalem where Jews would also be allowed to remain. And they might agree to call the fragments “a state”. If such proposals were made, we would - rightly - regard them as virtually a reversion to Nazism, a fact that might elicit some thoughts. If such proposals were made, Hamas’s position would be essentially like that of the United States and Israel for the past five years, after they came to tolerate some impoverished form of “statehood”. It is fair to describe Hamas as radical, extremist, and violent, and as a serious threat to peace and a just political settlement. But the organisation is hardly alone in this stance.

Elsewhere traditional means of undermining democracy have succeeded. In Haiti, the Bush administration’s favourite “democracy-building group, the International Republican Institute”, worked assiduously to promote the opposition to President Aristide, helped by the withholding of desperately needed aid on grounds that were dubious at best. When it seemed that Aristide would probably win any genuine election, Washington and the opposition chose to withdraw, a standard device to discredit elections that are going to come out the wrong way: Nicaragua in 1984 and Venezuela in December 2005 are examples that should be familiar. Then followed a military coup, expulsion of the president, and a reign of terror and violence vastly exceeding anything under the elected government.

The persistence of the strong line of continuity to the present again reveals that the United States is very much like other powerful states. It pursues the strategic and economic interests of dominant sectors of the domestic population, to the accompaniment of rhetorical flourishes about its dedication to the highest values. That is practically a historical universal, and the reason why sensible people pay scant attention to declarations of noble intent by leaders, or accolades by their followers.

One commonly hears that carping critics complain about what is wrong, but do not present solutions. There is an accurate translation for that charge: “They present solutions, but I don’t like them.” In addition to the proposals that should be familiar about dealing with the crises that reach to the level of survival, a few simple suggestions for the United States have already been mentioned: 1) accept the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court and the World Court; 2) sign and carry forward the Kyoto protocols; 3) let the UN take the lead in international crises; 4) rely on diplomatic and economic measures rather than military ones in confronting terror; 5) keep to the traditional interpretation of the UN Charter; 6) give up the Security Council veto and have “a decent respect for the opinion of mankind,” as the Declaration of Independence advises, even if power centres disagree; 7) cut back sharply on military spending and sharply increase social spending. For people who believe in democracy, these are very conservative suggestions: they appear to be the opinions of the majority of the US population, in most cases the overwhelming majority. They are in radical opposition to public policy. To be sure, we cannot be very confident about the state of public opinion on such matters because of another feature of the democratic deficit: the topics scarcely enter into public discussion and the basic facts are little known. In a highly atomised society, the public is therefore largely deprived of the opportunity to form considered opinions.

Another conservative suggestion is that facts, logic, and elementary moral principles should matter. Those who take the trouble to adhere to that suggestion will soon be led to abandon a good part of familiar doctrine, though it is surely much easier to repeat self-serving mantras. Such simple truths carry us some distance toward developing more specific and detailed answers. More important, they open the way to implement them, opportun- ities that are readily within our grasp if we can free ourselves from the shackles of doctrine and imposed illusion.

Though it is natural for doctrinal systems to seek to induce pessimism, hopelessness, and despair, reality is different. There has been substantial progress in the unending quest for justice and freedom in recent years, leaving a legacy that can be carried forward from a higher plane than before. Opportunities for education and organising abound. As in the past, rights are not likely to be granted by benevolent authorities, or won by intermittent actions - attending a few demonstrations or pushing a lever in the personalised quadrennial extravaganzas that are depicted as “democratic politics”. As always in the past, the tasks require dedicated day-by-day engagement to create - in part recreate - the basis for a functioning democratic culture in which the public plays some role in determining policies, not only in the political arena, from which it is largely excluded, but also in the crucial economic arena, from which it is excluded in principle. There are many ways to promote democracy at home, carrying it to new dimensions. Opportunities are ample, and failure to grasp them is likely to have ominous repercussions: for the country, for the world, and for future generations.

This is an edited extract from Failed States by Noam Chomsky (Hamish Hamilton), £16.99. To buy it for £15.50 (inc p&p), call Independent Books Direct on 0870 079 8897.

By Slingshot, Pessimism, Will Someone Please Think of the ChildrenMay 11, 2006 1:39 pm

listen to the album on his site. AMAZING!!! link
Two weeks ago, Neil Young released his latest album, “Living with War”. It’s a bold piece of work, proving that he isn’t Burning Out or Fading Away anytime soon. The album is a brilliant throwback to his Ohio days and will surely illustrate to our children a pivotal point in our country’s history. If it’s received well (which it probably won’t be) it has the potential to serve as the cadence for a brave change in our administration and the minds of our passive public body. Check out the 100 voices with him in “Let’s Impeach the President…” Despite Neil’s Canadian roots, he’s more American than most will ever be. I really hope “Living With War” gets some national airtime. Tell me if you hear it on Clearchannel!

Thank You Neil Young.

I heard on the radio yesterday that every American “owes” $28,000 to get us out of the current deficit. (keep pushing refresh to watch it climb!) The money we are borrowing to fund the war and sustain us comes from China and Japan, with high interest rates. Imagine what their economies will be like if/when we pay back the 8 trillion we owe!

This guy also illustrates my feelings more concisely than I could write them right now. ENJOY.

There’s been some ink spilled lately denigrating so called ‘angry liberals,’ that is, people who have allegedly lost their right to be taken seriously because they are ‘angry.’ And they are ‘liberal.’
Well, I hereby declare myself a charter member in the ALC (Angry Liberal Club).

Sure, at first I felt guilty — what right do I have as a patriotic American to be angry? Or liberal? Oh, I tried to repress the ‘angry thing,’ I tried — if I was asked, I claimed I was a ‘peeved moderate.’ Or a ‘mildly upset centrist.’ But after much work through ‘BIT’ (Blog Immersion Therapy), I stopped feeling the shame. I’m coming out of the closet to announce I am an Angry Liberal Guy. And I am pissed.

You might be saying “Man, what are you so angry about, Angry Liberal Guy?”

I’ve compiled a short (and by no means complete) list just so I could see it all in one place:

I’m angry about the shredding of the constitution…illegal wiretaps…falsified intelligence…secret prisons… use of torture as an accepted means of interrogation…Terry Schiavo…the war on science…denial of Global Warming…the fascistic secrecy of our elected officials… presidential signings that declare the President above the law…the breakdown of the wall between church and state…the outing of a clandestine CIA agent for purely partisan political gain…the corrupting influence of K Street… the total sell-out of the legislative process to corporate interests… appointments of unqualified cronies at every level of government…Harriet Miers…Brownie…Abu Ghraib… Scooter …the complete mismanagement of the war in Iraq…the lies about the complete mismanagement of the war in Iraq…the grotesque budget deficits… the pathetic response to Katrina… a civil rights division dedicated to undermining civil rights…an environmental protection agency that refuses to protect the environment… (Take a breath, Angry Liberal Guy.)

And I’m angry about a smug, simple-minded, incompetent, unqualified President, and a press that denies the obvious fact that we have a smug, simple-minded, incompetent unqualified President.

If these things don’t make you angry, I have to ask — what the hell is the matter with you?

And what would it take to make you angry?

– C.B. Shapiro

and if you want to see Bush’s schedule for the next few days, here you go. (pdf format)

By Slingshot, Pessimism, Will Someone Please Think of the Children, Conspiracy, Humor, TechnologyMay 9, 2006 2:57 pm

Fo real, yo... this is what it looked like.
Jorge couldn’t post yesterday because his computer blew up. Cross your fingers that he is able to retrieve all that stuff.

Keep on, Jorge!

By Jórge, PessimismApril 10, 2006 2:07 am

Via Tom Tomorrow, we get confirmation that BushCo & the Pentagon are warming up the ol’ strategery machine again, pointing it this time at Iran.

According to current and former officials, Pentagon and CIA planners have been exploring possible targets, such as the uranium enrichment plant at Natanz and the uranium conversion facility at Isfahan. Although a land invasion is not contemplated, military officers are weighing alternatives ranging from a limited airstrike aimed at key nuclear sites, to a more extensive bombing campaign designed to destroy an array of military and political targets.

Preparations for confrontation with Iran underscore how the issue has vaulted to the front of President Bush’s agenda even as he struggles with a relentless war in next-door Iraq. Bush views Tehran as a serious menace that must be dealt with before his presidency ends, aides said, and the White House, in its new National Security Strategy, last month labeled Iran the most serious challenge to the United States posed by any country.

The challenge, of course, revolves around Iran’s potential to produce and use nuclear weapons. The same kind of nuclear weapons that Israel and the United States are “contemplating” using to get to key targets.

Pentagon planners are studying how to penetrate eight-foot-deep targets and are contemplating tactical nuclear devices. The Natanz facility consists of more than two dozen buildings, including two huge underground halls built with six-foot walls and supposedly protected by two concrete roofs with sand and rocks in between, according to Edward N. Luttwak, a specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“The targeteers honestly keep coming back and saying it will require nuclear penetrator munitions to take out those tunnels,” said Kenneth M. Pollack, a former CIA analyst. “Could we do it with conventional munitions? Possibly. But it’s going to be very difficult to do.”

What’s that saying about teaching people that killing people is wrong?

By Jórge, PessimismMarch 19, 2006 4:33 pm

The War in Iraq turns 3 today, an occasion many said with absolute certainty we’d never see.

But now, in light of over 2,000 U.S. soldiers and at least 33,000 civilians dead, and new cost predictions floating in the trillions, perhaps an opportunity to learn from the fallacy of pre-judgment is at hand, even for so-called journalists. At least the folks at Fairness & Accuracy In Reporting (FAIR) seems to think so:

…[S]yndicated columnist Cal Thomas declared (4/16/03): “All of the printed and voiced prophecies should be saved in an archive. When these false prophets again appear, they can be reminded of the error of their previous ways and at least be offered an opportunity to recant and repent. Otherwise, they will return to us in another situation where their expertise will be acknowledged, or taken for granted, but their credibility will be lacking.”

Read the false prophets here. But please, no breath-holding.

By Slingshot, Pessimism, Will Someone Please Think of the ChildrenMarch 16, 2006 4:22 pm

majormap

A fascinating article was recently published listing the nations that are on the brink of collapse. The study states that economically stable nations should be more concerned about these countries than the superpowers with the fancy technology.

How do you know a failed state when you see one? Of course, a government that has lost control of its territory or of the monopoly on the legitimate use of force has earned the label. But there can be more subtle attributes of failure. Some regimes, for example, lack the authority to make collective decisions or the capacity to deliver public services. In other countries, the populace may rely entirely on the black market, fail to pay taxes, or engage in large-scale civil disobedience. Outside intervention can be both a symptom of and a trigger for state collapse. A failed state may be subject to involuntary restrictions of its sovereignty, such as political or economic sanctions, the presence of foreign military forces on its soil, or other military constraints, such as a no-fly zone.

The report goes on to name the 30-45 endangered countries (depending on whom you ask) and raises some good questions to what should be done. Free elections don’t seem to be working so well for most of them.

The index does not provide any easy answers for those looking to shore up countries on the brink. Elections are almost universally regarded as helpful in reducing conflict. However, if they are rigged, conducted during active fighting, or attract a low turnout, they can be ineffective or even harmful to stability. Electoral democracy appears to have had only a modest impact on the stability of states such as Iraq, Rwanda, Kenya, Venezuela, Nigeria, and Indonesia. Ukraine ranks as highly vulnerable in large part because of last year’s disputed election.

The part that struck me the most was the last paragraph, where there is a description of the factors used to determine what was defined as a failing state.

What are the clearest early warning signs of a failing state? Among the 12 indicators we use, two consistently rank near the top. Uneven development is high in almost all the states in the index, suggesting that inequality within states—and not merely poverty—increases instability. Criminalization or delegitimization of the state, which occurs when state institutions are regarded as corrupt, illegal, or ineffective, also figured prominently. Facing this condition, people often shift their allegiances to other leaders—opposition parties, warlords, ethnic nationalists, clergy, or rebel forces. Demographic factors, especially population pressures stemming from refugees, internally displaced populations, and environmental degradation, are also found in most at-risk countries, as are consistent human rights violations. Identifying the signs of state failure is easier than crafting solutions, but pinpointing where state collapse is likely is a necessary first step.

Sound familiar? I realize that the countries they are referring are in a further state of collapse than us, but the same signs could be applied easily to the state of our overcaffinated economy, the polarization of the people, destruction of our forests and wetlands, (not to mention the latest Alaskan oil spill), hurricane refugees, and our consistent human rights violations.

Link.

caption for the comments

By Johnny Palmetto, Pessimism, HumorMarch 1, 2006 12:38 am

Barney

Don Knotts has passed away. May he rest in peace.

Cheesey it may seem, but I spent many great moments with my father watching Andy and Barney on WOLO or WTBS. Now I’m up North and, alas, I don’t have cable. Thus, no Andy. No Barney. No madcap laughter.

By Slingshot, Pessimism, Will Someone Please Think of the ChildrenFebruary 24, 2006 8:29 pm

mmm.  digesting 'merica! I can't believe we ate the whole thing...
This hasn’t made headlines in most places, but seems to effect most of the country. It’s one of those tell-tale signs that we are about to enter into an inevitable recession, despite Bush’s vain attempts to make everything seem rosy in our country. One of the areas slated for sale is right down the street in the Great Smokys Nat’l Park.

The Bush administration on Friday detailed its proposal to sell more than 300,000 acres of national forests and other public land to help pay for rural schools in 41 states.
The land sales, ranging from less than an acre to more than 1,000 acres, could total more than $1 billion and would be the largest sale of forest land in decades.
Western lawmakers immediately objected, saying the short-term gains would be offset by the permanent loss of public lands. Congress would have to approve the sales, and has rejected similar proposals in recent years.
Forest Service officials say the sales are needed to raise $800 million over the next five years to pay for schools and roads in rural counties hurt by logging cutbacks on federal land. The Bureau of Land Management has said it also plans to sell federal lands to raise an estimated $250 million over five years.
Dave Alberswerth, a public lands expert with the The Wilderness Society environmental group called the plan a billion-dollar boondoggle to privatize treasured public lands to pay for “tax cuts to the rich.”

“This is not going to be politically acceptable to most people,” Alberswerth said.

link and

How’s that for land management!

By Rib Roche, PessimismFebruary 19, 2006 11:28 pm

fareed

Here’s a great map of the world colored in relative civil and political liberties.

And here is an article by Fareed Zakaria that I read in Newsweek this morning:

George W. Bush is not a man for second thoughts, but even he might have had some recently. Ever since 9/11, Bush has made the promotion of democracy in the Middle East the center-piece of his foreign policy, and doggedly pushed the issue. Over the last few months, however, this approach has borne strange fruit, culminating in Hamas’s victory in Gaza and the West Bank. Before that, we have watched it strengthen Hizbullah in Lebanon, which (like Hamas) is often described in the West as a terrorist organization. In Iraq, the policy has brought into office conservative religious parties with their own private militias. In Egypt, it has bolstered the Muslim Brotherhood, one of the oldest fundamentalist organizations in the Arab world, from which Al Qaeda descends. “Democracies replace resentment with hope, respect the rights of their citizens and their neighbors, and join the fight against terror,” Bush said last week in his State of the Union address. But is this true of the people coming to power in the Arab world today?

also, mad statistics

By Rib Roche, Optimism, Pessimism, Conspiracy, HumorFebruary 8, 2006 10:42 pm

[post has been censored]

By Slingshot, Optimism, Pessimism, Will Someone Please Think of the ChildrenFebruary 2, 2006 4:21 pm

Oh Becky Gibson, read it again!
I have been making a conscious effort for the past several months to live by my convictions. As an idealist, it’s easy to come up with a vision of how things are supposed to be and how they aren’t, but it can become much more challenging to actually break through the mold our culture is forming us all to conform with, and begin acting in a way that might lead to a more sustainable world. At this point, it might be a lost cause, as climatologists have just announced that we have reached the point of no return, as our atmosphere has reached a state of irrepaiable change.

Thirty years ago, the scientist James Lovelock worked out that the Earth possessed a planetary-scale control system which kept the environment fit for life. He called it Gaia, and the theory has become widely accepted. Now, he believes mankind’s abuse of the environment is making that mechanism work against us. His astonishing conclusion - that climate change is already insoluble, and life on Earth will never be the same again.

My idealism also might be interpreted as a way to make me feel better about myself, perhaps validating my existence and enabling me to scorn others for their wasteful ways. The way I see it, if I wish to see a difference in my lifetime I have to make choices that not only effect me, but those around me and the generations to come. I feel that we are living on a cusp where people have to make a conscious decision to think about every purchase they make and every intention they have if they want the generations to come to live on the same green, breathable planet most of us take for granted today. This conviction is even printed on my toilet paper. I've read it a lot lately, thanks to the colon cleanse.

With that theme in mind, I intend on writing about different principles that I find important in my next few entrees. One issue I have been trying to search is a list of good, green companies that span the spectrum of products and services for the consumer. There doesn’t seem to be a legitimate list compiling these. The one I found was instantly discredited because Exxon was included.
they still haven't finished the job!

What I did find is a slightly more pessimestic list of the 14 Worst Corporate Evildoers of 2005.
That’s a start, right?

By Johnny Palmetto, Optimism, PessimismFebruary 1, 2006 12:06 am

la, la

I was here. And now I’m here…

blah, blah

Discuss.

Uncategorized, By Slingshot, Pessimism, ConspiracyJanuary 12, 2006 2:35 pm

sunrise
There must be something in the air this week. I have found a series of documentaries on 9/11 that are backed with overwhelming evidence that the entire attack was staged. The footage is amazing, the narrator (though he sounds a little like Ira Glass) does a great job in presenting the case without any assumption or insinuation. Make sure you have a good connection and some time to dedicate tothe film , as the 3-part series is about 30 min long. Trust me, I wouldn’t post it if I thought it was not worth your time.

link.

aim high!!!
On a lighter note, here’s a site I look to when I think my job couldn’t get any worse. (Though some of these look kinda fun!) he he

link.

By Slingshot, Optimism, Pessimism, Will Someone Please Think of the Children, ConspiracyJanuary 6, 2006 5:57 pm


Who controls humans? God? The genes? Or nevertheless the computer? The on-line forum Edge asked its yearly question — and the answers raised more questions.

Once a year self-styled head of the Third Culture movement and New York literary agent John Brockman asks his fellow thinkers and clients a question, who publishes their answers every New Year’s Day in his online forum edge.org. Thus Mr. Brockman fulfills the promise that is the basic principle of Third Culture.

The sciences are asking mankind’s relevant questions he says, while the humanities busy themselves with ideological skirmishes and semantic hairsplitting. It is about having last words, which have never been as embattled as in the current context of post-ideological debates and de-secularization. That’s why this year’s question ‘What is your dangerous idea’ seemed unusually loaded. Since it’s inception in 1998 the forum had mainly dealt with the basic questions of science culture per se. But maybe that’s why this year the debate has brought out the main concerns of ThirdCulture more direct than in the years before.

Just Click on some of the highlighted names and read their thoughts. Pretty interesting


On another note, last week, a woman in Israel married a dophin. link

By Lucy, PessimismJanuary 4, 2006 5:40 pm

In trying to find the story about the West Virginia mining collapse, I googled the words “trapped miners, West Virginia” and found a host of different stories about many other mining accidents. I googled a number of different word scenarios and still couldn’t find the story until I just went to the Associated Press Website. What do I think of that? Well, since you asked, I’ll tell you.

As for now, I’m working in a career using advanced technology, GIS software, 3D animation software, CAD and a host of others in order to further the idea of community-based design and development. But I’m beginning to think that the idea of “development” is counter-productive, and Coal mining is just the tip of it. The computer I’m working on right now, and all the electronics we use at my office (and all of our cellphones) rely on materials that have to be mined from the earth. Now, not many people want to give up their homelands for it to be devastated and turned into a mine, so there’s a lot of struggle involved, sometimes cheating, lying, corruption and murder.

So what I’m thinking at the moment is that we can either see things like this mining accident as a red flag in our relationship with the Earth, or we can regard it as a necessary sacrifice to the gods of production and civilization. I once was a firm believer in Bucky Fuller’s idea that technology had the possibility to save humankind. I’m now beginning to think that almost all of our technology not only is rooted in oppression and violence, but also actually insists upon it for its survival. While we may send cell phones to growing communities in poorer nations and see the good they provide, we do not see the violence in obtaining mining rights for the materials in the same phone.

Today’s post is merely a rant, and this is something I’m going to be looking into deeper as the weeks go by, I’d like to hear what you think about this. I’m growing ever more anti-civ every day.

PS, here’s a quote about our lovely Appalachian Mountains, a place where some of my loved ones call home:

One of the greatest environmental and human rights catastrophes in American history is underway just southwest of our nation’s capital. In the coalfields of Appalachia, individuals, families, and entire communities are being driven off their land by flooding, landslides, and blasting resulting from mountaintop removal coal mining.

Mountain top removal coal mining is a relatively new type of coal mining that involves clear cutting native hardwood forests, using dynamite to blast away 800-1000 feet of mountaintop, and then dumping the debris into nearby valleys forever burying streams. Meanwhile, communities near these mining sites are forced to contend with; continual blasting from mining operations that can take place up to 300 feet from their homes and operate 24 hours/day, air pollution from dust and debris, and the threat of floods that have left hundreds dead and thousands homeless.

To read more about the Appalachian Mountains, go here.

Optimism, PessimismDecember 2, 2005 12:01 am

2003
World AIDS day

By Rib Roche, PessimismNovember 21, 2005 3:43 pm

outbreak!
So what are we in for with this whole bird flu thing? Well first let’s understand a little about this avian influenza, and specifically the one making all the headlines right now, H5N1. The H’s and the N’s refer to where certain proteins are (the Spanish flu, discussed below, was caused by H1N1); effect on you? None. Just a name. So anyway this type of influenza virus (virus, not a bacteria) is carried by fowl. And it is infecting humans in some cases. In this limited sense, also not a big deal for most people of the world. So what’s the big deal? Right now people are only getting this stuff from birds so, well, stay away from birds and you’re cool. And that would be that if it weren’t for the ability of influenza viruses to undergo antigenic shifts, in which their characteristics can drastically change (the surface antigens are the H’s and N’s from above). So if (when) this happens, and the virus can spread from human to human, it’s like bullfrogs in Australia: the human immune system has no prior history with the invader so it doesn’t know what to do.
So when’s the last time this happened? There was the Asian Flu (H2N2) of 1957-1958 (between one and four million casualties), and related to that was the Hong Kong Flu (also H2N2) of 1968-1969 (between 750,000 and two million worldwide, including the US). But the big one, the granddaddy, was La Grippe, the Spanish Flu (H1N1), of 1918-1919. La Grippe killed between 25 and 50 million people worldwide. It started in Kansas but quickly shifted again to a more deadly version and spread to Brest, France, Boston, Massachusetts, and Freetown, Sierra Leone. It was commonly called the Spanish Flu partly because Spain had one of the worst initial outbreaks (around eight million dead) but probably more because Spain wasn’t involved in the other big news of the day, World War I. La Grippe killed more American soldiers during WWI than died in combat.

The strain was unusual in commonly killing many young and healthy victims, as opposed to more common influenzas which caused the bulk of their mortality among newborns and the old and infirm. People without symptoms could be struck suddenly and be rendered too feeble to walk within hours; many would die the next day. Symptoms included a blue tint to the face and coughing up blood caused by severe obstruction of the lungs. In further stages, the virus caused an uncontrollable haemorrhaging that filled the lungs, and patients would drown in their own body fluids.

But don’t worry. Maybe get a mask though.
Avian Flu: CDC, WHO, all else from the always wonderful Wiki.
bok bok bok bok!